The WELL: inkwell.vue.372: Emily Gertz, From the Climate Talks in Copenhagen

#132: Jacques Leslie (jacques) Wed 6 Jan 10 15:32

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 15:32:00 PST

Thanks, Emily, for all your enlightening, judicious responses* they've made for a terrific discussion. I hope you'll continue to cover climate change, probably the most single most important international issue. [Read entire topic]

#131: Emily J. Gertz (emilyg) Wed 6 Jan 10 07:22

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 07:22:00 PST

Thanks, Lisa!

Thank you all for coming by to ask questions and discuss the conference.

Jacques, at the moment I have a hard time imagining that the current Kyoto signatories will let CDM and the European carbon market just wither and die. Keeping that from happening is a big incentive to get a new deal worked out, it would seem.

I do not know if there would be enough activity under REDD to sustain the whole market, since it's limited to forest preservation. That's a huge arena, but the current CDM also allows for things like, say, Germany funding a low-carbon development project in Poland, that is to say, richest industrialized nations funding / getting credits for projects in poorest industrialized nations (pretty much the former Eastern Bloc).

But just because I don't imagine it right now doesn't mean it can't or won't happen. COP15 really laid bare some unfortunate (for the climate) truths about global superpower shifts, since China and India are probably a lot more resilient against outside pressures to conform to a good climate deal than other major economies.

And it also revealed that the current form and format of negotiating this deal may not be robust enough to create the next treaty.

I don't know if there are other mechanisms to keep CDM going. Perhaps it could be split off into a project under other parts of the UN, like REDD.

On the topic of California, or American states in general, joining the European carbon market: pretty fascinating possibility. Over the past decade, it's been the states that have led in taking action on global warming. They essentially side-stepped the intransigence of the Bush administration. That can only be a limited response in the end, but it's led to some "real-world" trials of things like US carbon markets, and shown that they've got potential to work in this country.

The biggest hurdle right now is probably that the US is not a party to the Kyoto Accord. Wouldn't it be delicious if cities and states could independently join the accord? Many already have signed on in principle. [Read entire topic]

#130: Lisa Harris (lrph) Wed 6 Jan 10 06:35

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 06:35:00 PST

We've turned our attention to another discussion (Bruce Sterling's State of the World), but I just wanted to thank Emily again for joining us and for providing us all with incredible insight into the Climate Talks.

Of course, this topic will continue as long as you'd all like. [Read entire topic]

#129: Gary Greenberg (gberg) Wed 6 Jan 10 02:56

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 02:56:00 PST

Same here. But I stil don't understand. If the earth is warming, why is it so damn cold here in New England this winter. Should I just go outside and start emptying spray bottles into the air to speed things along? [Read entire topic]

#128: Steve Bjerklie (stevebj) Wed 6 Jan 10 02:51

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 02:51:00 PST

Indeed. I really appreciate your time and posts here, Emily. [Read entire topic]

#127: Jennifer Powell (jnfr) Tue 5 Jan 10 16:37

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 16:37:00 PST

This has been great reading, Emily and all. Thanks! [Read entire topic]

#126: Jacques Leslie (jacques) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:22

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:22:00 PST

Emily, thanks for that link to Eshelman's article. So if the CDM dies, what is left of the carbon market that at least until recently has been quite robust in Europe? Would REDD keep it alive? Are there other mechanisms that would keep it going? Would California's attempts to join in be stymied? [Read entire topic]

#125: Steven McGarity (sundog) Tue 5 Jan 10 12:00

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 12:00:00 PST

Interesting discussion. I was so happy to hear about things as they were there at Copenhagen. [Read entire topic]

#124: Emily J. Gertz (emilyg) Tue 5 Jan 10 06:38

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 06:38:00 PST

Well, if Kyoto expires with nothing to replace it, then I guess the CDM as framed under the Kyoto accord goes with it.

Here's a pretty good write-up of where CDM stands in the wake of Copenhagen:

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2255410/copenhagen-green- lights-plan

This quote in the article is the takeaway, at least for me:

"Speeding up a few bits of paperwork won't have a huge effect if investors don't know for certain what will happen when Kyoto expires in 2012," he said.

"It will take 18 months to two years to get a project up and running, so what investor is going to invest in a new project when the whole mechanism could change a few months after the project is completed?"

One big arena of negotiations at Copenhagen was the restructuring of the mechanisms to preserve and restore forests in the global South. That's called REDD, for "United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries."

REDD is a UN program, but not under the UNFCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) -- it's a joint program of FAO and UNEP and UNDP. It's got facets similar to the CDM, particularly in that richer countries can fund REDD programs and get "credits" toward their own emissions. Its problems are also similar: how to accurately account for the carbon storage; how to be sure the projects actually happen and are effective; how to ensure the money gets to its intended targets.

One unique facet of REDD has been attempts to struture it such that South nations have incentives to not convert forests to palm oil or other plantations.

Some of the more dogged reporting on REDD that I've seen was by Robert Eshelman in The Nation. According to Eshelman, it seems that the US played a significant role in weakening the revised REDD agreement.

HIs links:

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/copenhagen/_by-rob [Read entire topic]

#123: Jacques Leslie (jacques) Mon 4 Jan 10 17:28

Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:28:00 PST

Emily, in the absence of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, what happens to the CDM? Does it simply continue on, or does it go out of business? Given the incredible corruption that you allude to and that I've heard lots about, its passing might not be a bad thing. [Read entire topic]