OVERVIEW
By 2010, global society will be in the middle of a number of transitions,
the outcomes of which are highly uncertain.
- Gaps between old and young, rich and poor, North and South, and so
on will increase.
- Conflicts among different cultures will grow.
- Political and economic restructuring will mean short-term dislocations
before long-term benefits
- The emergence of information economies raises fundamental questions
about economic activity, growth, and wealth.
- Environmental problems and concerns will intensify well into the next
century.
- the key question is how to look at the future:
- The same game with the same basic rules?
- The same game with new rules?
- A new game entirely?
MAJOR GLOBAL TRENDS
Demographic Transitions
Population growth rates will continue to decline but not fast enough
to avoid serious overpopulation problems.
- Aging and maturation in rich countries
- Dislocations and tensions resulting from immigration
- Epidemics and population declines
- High growth in poorer countries
- Special situations
- China and India
- The Middle East
- Africa
Social Change
Conflict and coevolution involving traditional, modern, and postmodern
values will play out on the global stage.
- Global mosaic society and global culture
- Revolution in individual and group rights
- Social and economic stratification
- Fundamentalism versus secularism
- Decline of traditional social institutions
- Special interests and "network" organizations
Economic Restructuring
Competition, technological change, and other forces will continue to
push reorganization of economic activity at all levels.
- Transitions among primary, secondary, and tertiary industries
- Emergence of new NICs
- Network organizations and flexible teams
- Global strategic and tactial alliances
- Shift from materials to information
- Privatization
- National economic policy
Political Structures
The key trend is rescaling, both globally and locally
- Transnational and semipublic organizations
- Localism and regionalism
- Local and global NGOs
- Democracy versus competing systems
- Religious governments
- Authoritarian Stats
- Collapsing empires
- Wars and "low-Intensity" conflicts
Technological Frameworks
The spreading and maturation of the "informative" economy will remain
the dominant technological trend.
- Shift from "mass" to "Informativity"
- Communications, media, and services
- Problems associated with the knowledge revolution
- Overload
- Access
- Productivity and value
- What to do
- Biological, energy, and other new technologies
Environmental Realities
Concern about the environment will continue to rise.
- Momentum of past activities and accumulation of problems.
- Increasing knowledge about interations and effects
- Regional and global scope
- Major issues:
- The Greenhouse Effect
- Coordination of policies
- Enviornmental versus economic value, and long-term dicounting
- NIMBYism
- Reasonable versus radical sustainability
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Scenario thinking is essential in an era of increasing uncertainty and
complexity. Some key dimensions of global uncertainty are:
- The nature, degree, and stability of international consensus
- The severity of economic dislocations associated with massive restructuring
- "Rational" versus "radical" environmental and energy policies
- The balance between individual and national interest, on the one hand,
and community and regional/global interest, on the other hand
Prospects for "accidents" will increase rather than decline during the
next 20 years.
Implications
The next 20 years will continue to be a transitionary era, with few
prospects for the emergence of a new, stable global order.
- Demassification of products because of economic and technological trends
- Decarbonization of the energy sector because of resource and environmental
trends
- Deconstruction of traditional assumptions because of social and political
trends
- Increasing need for flexibility and innovation
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