March 30, 1992 EDITION: HONG KONG Secrets of a Hot Novel China's mystery writer stays anonymous but reveals himself as an apprehensive environmentalist By: Jaime A. FlorCruz/Beijing What would apocalypse look like from the perspective of China? Maybe like this: street protests erupt in Beijing after Deng Xiaoping's demise. A military coup ends a bitter power struggle in the capital but leads to secession of the free-market-minded southern provinces. The People's Liberation Army attacks the south; Taiwan intervenes. Beijing fires nuclear missiles at Taiwan; a United Nations armed with atomic weapons retaliates. The conflict expands into global nuclear holocaust and is followed by nuclear winter. Yet, somehow, China survives, in part owing to the flexibility of its new representative, elected government and to a special strain of staple food. That is the scenario outlined in Yellow Peril, a science-fiction novel written in the People's Republic that won wide readership and critical acclaim in Taiwan and Hong Kong late last year. Although banned in China, photocopies and computer disks of the 1,100-page book are still making the rounds among Chinese intellectuals. The novel is unusual in its length and form -- apocalyptic thrillers are not a mainstay on China's bookshelves -- but it has become even more of a cause celebre because of the anonymity of its author, who is known only by his pen name, Bao Mi (Keep Secret). Freed by his furtiveness to make their own guesses for their own reasons, Chinese exiles in the West claimed that the writer was a survivor of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre; they saw Yellow Peril as a condemnation of communism and a plea for democracy. Rumors about his fate abounded. One report said he was arrested in Beijing last December. Bao Mi is not under detention -- and by his own firm assertion is no dissident either. In an interview with TIME, he declined to give his identity but revealed himself to be a sharp-witted man in his late 30s. A professional writer of modest repute, Bao insists he was a mere ''fence-sitter'' at the time of Tiananmen, although he sympathized with the pro-democracy protesters. Yellow Peril, he explains, is a philosophical tract against consumerism, not an attack on the communist regime. In his novel, competition over natural resources triggers both the violent southern separatist movement and the international frictions that result in nuclear war. ''The world's resources are limited, but people's greed for them is limitless,'' Bao says. ''This will lead to global destruction unless greedy consumerism is curbed.'' Totalitarianism will not diminish that greed, nor will democracy. ''In China as it is, Western-style democracy will not necessarily be better than the Communist Party dictatorship,'' he contends. ''It could even be worse.'' He advocates a third road, consisting of ''a step-by-step selection of leaders'' through genuine grass-roots elections. Though the author is no political activist, he is passionate about environmentalism. A peripatetic adventurer who has climbed the Himalayas and navigated the Yellow River on a wooden raft, Bao supports Greenpeace because ''I've seen enough environmental destruction.'' He intended his novel as a plea against more destruction. Why then the anonymity? In a still chilly political climate, Bao remains somewhat apprehensive. ''I broke no laws, and I'd prefer to be aboveboard,'' he says. But the banning of his book does nothing to lessen his insecurity. Until his fears are fully assuaged, he prefers to remain part of an intriguing -- and best-selling -- secret. Photo(s): FORREST ANDERSON FOR TIME Author Bao Mi, still anonymous: his science-fiction novel Yellow Peril, above, philosophically attacks the unchecked greed of consumerism Color: Bao Mi with face disguised electronically. NO CREDIT See above. Color reproduction: Cover of book Yellow Peril.