The java applet below calculates the likelihood of each team in the NCAA Tournament field reaching a particular level.
The power ratings in the left-hand column (based on Jeff Sagarin's ratings published in USA Today) determine a point spread for every possible match-up. This point spread is translated into a probability, assuming a normal distribution of results around the predicted result (with a default standard deviation of 11 points). The probabilities are then accumulated, using the actual tournament draw.
You can experiment with the calculator by entering different power ratings for the teams. Then press the "Recalculate" button for the new results.
Enter equal power ratings for similar seeds to see who got the best draw, or which team really profits from upsets.
The applet requires Netscape 2 or above or Internet Explorer 3 or above.
Check this site throughout the tournament for new versions of this program.
Jim Klopfenstein
klopfens@well.com