Welcome to the reference page on scenario planning and scenario thinking!
At this web page you will find references and texts
about scenario planning. Some are good for orientation while others are
much deeper and part in the effort on developing the method and
exploring new areas of application. I have tried to make it more
convenient for you by organizing them in a way that hopefully will make
it easy to find the information you are seeking. I have also filtered
out a lot of references I feel are duplicates or in some other way
doesn't provide any additional information on the subject. If you feel
your links are missing or would like to propose some additions or
changes, please feel free to contact me!
What is Scenario Planning? (top)
Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding
the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving
forces affecting our world. It is a group process which encourages
knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of
central issues important to the future of your business. The goal is to
craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and
heavily influencing driving forces. The stories together with the work
getting there has the dual purpose of increasing the knowledge of the
business environment and widen both the receiver's and participant's
perception of possible future events.
The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but this
and similar methods have been used for enabling other types of group
discussion about a common future.
Introductory texts (top)
Here you can find easy to read texts for the impatient but curious.
Scenarios
A short description from Global Business
Network, a major participant
in the scenario arena, on what scenarios are and what they are good for.
How to build
scenarios
A populistic article in the Scenario Special issue of Wired Magazine about scenarios with a simple fleshed out example. The author is Lawrence Wilkinson who is co-founder and managing director of Global
Business Network (see below), a think tank and strategic consultancy
that has succeeded in spreading the use of scenario planning.
Current
Royal Dutch/Shell scenarios and introductory texts
Shell provides both introductory information
about scenario planning aswell as several downloadable scenarios.
Plotting
Your Scenarios - An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario
Planning
Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy originally wrote this very good article
for Liam & Fahay Learning
From the Future (see book references below).
The Wikipedia entry on Scenario Planning
This should be a standard reference on scenario planning, but right now I think it isn't. I am looking for energy and time to edit it.
Here are blogs that in someway are about scenario planning, even if they also talk are related to other areas as well.
Future of Health IT: Trends and Scenarios
"Commentary on the future of health information technology and its effects on society and culture, especially with respect to the future of biomedical research informatics, from an informatics practitioner-researcher in the U.S. academic health center clinical research informatics community. What's it all about? The Long Tail, social networking and network visualization tools, folksonomies, cool health IT innovations, serious games, scenario planning..."
Open the Future - Jamais Cascio's blog
Jamais is writing about many things related to the future, but is a scenario planning practitioner and write occasionally more specifically about scenario planning as well. Examples are posts about the experience from performing virtual scenario planning sessions over the Internet and the idea of Open Source Scenario Planning.
Mapping Strategy
A blog with "reflections on strategic thinking, forecasting, scenario planning and organizational resilience" by Art Hutchinson, founder of the Cartegic Group in Boston.
More in-depth articles in the scenario domain. Some are focusing on the
scenario process in itself while other are discussing applications to
different areas.
Storying
corporate futures: The Shell Scenarios
The history about the scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell - an interview with Betty Sue Flowers.
Doing Scenarios
Art Kleiner, author of The Age of Heretics,
wrote this article for The Whole Earth Review in Spring 1999 and contains a
short step-by-step overview of the scenario planning method and a book
reference list.
Strategic
thinking with scenarios - Note: IDON site occasionally pointing wrong!
An article by Tony Hodgson (Metabridge) which is one of the best (in my opinion) because it is concise. Recommended! There are more interesting articles at the
Metabridge article collection (broken - under reconstruction)
.
Deconstructing
the Future - The Cognitive Case for Scenario Planning
A cognitive argument for scenario planning written by Gary Chicoine at
Metabridge
Spinning the future
Another overview article on scenario planning.
Attuning to the future
In this short article from Context Magazine
the author is presenting a simple process using some scenario mechanisms to break open the
perspectives on the future.Scenario planning for distributors
Article in Modern Distribution Management which argues for scenario planning and refers to the commerical scenario based report
Facing the Forces of Change: Future Scenarios for Wholesale Distribution
What if? - The Art of Scenario
Thinking for Non-Profits (PDF)
Global Business Network recently published a longer text about scenario
planning aimed at non profit organizations. It is long but is
definitely worth reading if you are working in a non profit
organization.
A Delicate Balance Between Risk and Reward
When Financial Times ran a series called Mastering Risk a number of GBN people was involved in the process. This article is written by Eamonn Kelly and Steve Weber.
Moving Beyond the Official Future
This is another article in the Financial Times Mastering Risk series. This one was written by GBN consultants Chris Ertel and Doug Randall.
Scenarios and strategy
Scenarios,
strategy and the strategy process
Interesting paper by Kees van der Heijden, a strategic planning veteran from Shell who is also a member of GBN. Scenario planning is treated as a strategic tool that can be used to develop business idea by testing it in several futures and getting a more powerful and more robust
strategy.
Using
scenarios to develop strategy
Paul de Ruijter reports from a project where scenarios were used to develop strategy in a large multi national company.
(Real)
options thinking and scenarios - discussion paper
How do scenarios relate to options thinking. With options the authors mean options as in optional or in "which path to choose" and not financial options.
From
scenario thinking to strategic action - turing intelligence into action
An article on how to take scenarios to real action.
Taming
Uncertainty: Risk Management for the entire enterprise
PriceWaterhouseCoopers presents a text with an argument for using scenario planning as strategic tool based on a discussion on Risk Management.
The Strategic Management Response to Challenge of Global Change
A discussion about Scenario Planning and strategy by James L. Morrison and Ian Wilson.
Business
tsunamis are approaching - learn to prepare
Leonard Fuld has written an article in Pharmaceutical Executive
about scenarios and how to prepare for dramatic changes in industries.
Scenarios in an academic context
The Art of the Possible - The scenario
method and the ‘Third Debate’ in international relations theory (PDF)
A masters thesis in International Relations using scenario method. Quote from the Introduction: "I believe the scenario method is in line with current theoretical developments in international relations. In my opinion it manages to largely overcome what is criticised in traditional
approaches, while at the same time it shapes ways to work with new
ideas. Furthermore, scenarios combine and incorporate ideas from recent
critical approaches, such as Critical Theory and postmodernism, without
necessarily rejecting traditional approaches. The scenario method
leaves room for multiple approaches.
Here you can find published scenarios in different areas. Almost all of
these are handling different domains so categorizing them is almost
impossible.
Managing tomorrow's people - The future of work to 2020
PricewaterhouseCoopers in UK have together with James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization developed a set of scenarios focused on the future of work.
A set of scenarios from Future Studio
Future Studio have collected a long list of scenarios on different subjects.
Meadowlark Project
A Northern Great Plains Inc project aiming at engaging the population in an intense dialog about the common future.
Siemans AG - Horizons2020 - Thinking ahead: Exploring sustainable development
Siemens have a long tradition of thinking broad about the future and develop scenarios.
WBCSD water scenarios to 2025
World Business Council for Sustainable Development - WCSD are using scenario planning to explore the problem of availability of clean water. This document is both important reading for anyone who want to understand more about the problem as well as a really high quality set of scenarios.
WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050: Exploring sustainable development
Another high quality set of scenarios from WBCSD.
Scenarios for future scientific and technological developments in developing countries 2005-2015
CORDIS scenarios which are developed in order to increase the understanding about implications of EU relations to developing countries.
Biotechnology Scenarios: 2000-2050: Using the future to explore the present
Scenarios from 2000 developed by World Business Council for Sustainable Development which aimed to support a strategic conversation about our biotech future.
Global
Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
A report produced in December 2000 by the US government. It is the result of a project where a lot of non-governmental experts were gathered to create a map of the future. In the end of the report you
can find four scenarios as a part of the result from the project.
Which world? - Scenarios for the 21st century
A web site which actually is a companion site to a book by Allen
Hammond with the same name. A number of global scenarios can be found
on these pages.
The Scenarios for the
21st Century Organizations
The subtitle is: Shifting Network of Small Firms or All-Encompassing "Virtual Countries" and it says a lot of what this scenario is all about. It is further the base scenarios behind the
creation of the MIT/Sloan project Inventing
the Organizations of the 21st Century.
Kenya at the Crossroads (broken site?)
Between 1998 and early 2000, a group of over 80 Kenyans representing
different generations and backgrounds met to reflect on the future of
the country. Their reflections are summarized in four scenarios which
depict alternative futures that could evolve and what they would mean
for the country. This web site brings together their experience.
Current
Royal Dutch/Shell scenarios and introductory texts
Shell provides both introductory information
about scenario planning as well as several downloadable scenarios.
Scenarios
Europe 2010 - Five possible futures for Europe
A scenario project initiated by the EC which was performed in 1999.
Scenario
Planning for the Technical Textiles Sector of the TCF&L Industries
A PDF report written in September 1999 from a project initiated by the
Australian government.
The Future of the Mobile Internet in
Europe in 2007
The Digital Thinking Network convened a scenario-building workshop to develop and analyse potential futures for the mobile Internet in Europe over the next five
years.The summary report is publicly available
Scenarios
for the future of US - China relations (2001 - 2010) (PDF)
GBN Europe have been involved in facilitating a scenario process in a project driven by Nautilus Institute entitled Towards a Common Agenda: Strategic Partnerships for Environmental Governance After the Asian Crisis.
The
Future of the Tertiary Education Sector: Scenarios for a Learning Society (PDF)
A set of scenarios prepared for the OECD/Japanese Seminar on the Future of Universities,
Tokyo, December 11-12, 2003.
The new global Shell scenarios for 2025
These scenarios are especially interesting in the current energy situation.
Commercial scenario reports (top)
As an extended version of the examples section there are a number of
commercially available scenario reports that show a wider usefulness of
scenarios.
Facing the Forces of Change: Future
Scenarios for Wholesale Distribution
A reference to a commercial industry report
with 4 fleshed out scenarios by Pembroke Consulting.
Organizations (top)
There are a number of organizations who are providing strategy services and education built on scenario planning. This list does not make any claims of being
extensive and will only provide you with some organizations which I
have had at least some contact with or have been collecting information
from.
futuramb
This is my own company engaged in scenario planning projects, education and speaking about the future.
Global Business Network
As a worldwide membership organization, GBN engages in a collaborative exploration of the future, discovering the frontiers of knowledge and creating innovative tools for strategic action."
- Since 1987 GBN have worked together with a large number of big companies to
explore the future of their industries. Everything they do involves
scenario thinking in one way or the other and they are an authoritative
force in the scenario planning world. Their network of remarkable
people is huge and includes many of America's big thinkers,
but also people from other places as well.
Kairos Future
Kairos Future is a Swedish consulting company who are mainly focusing on the future and strategic issues around the future and base some of their work on scenario planning techniques. Their list of published
books is impressing.
St Gallen Center for Futures Research
A Swiss organization mainly working with scenario planning and system
dynamics. Most of the web site is in German.
Digital
Thinking Network
A network organization who work with scenarios with main focus on
exploring our digital future.
Practical links (top)
There
are some useful links on for supporting the scenario planning
process on the Internet. Here I am trying to collect those that I find
most valuable in the process.
Plausible
Futures
A very good and updated newsletter with resources for scenario planners. News, thoughts and references are constantly being updated on this excellent site.
StrategyNet (formerly StrategyPortal and StrategyNet)
This is a UK based portal which provides on-line links
to web sites offering knowledge, information, articles and insights about
strategy, strategic management and strategic planning. A good
collection of strategy related links.
Reference literature (top)
In dead tree versions there are a number of books dealing with scenario planning. There are of course more than these, but not that many.
The
Art of the Long View
Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
(Peter Schwartz; Doubleday, 1991; 258p;
ISBN
0-385-26731-2(o.o.p.),
Paperback 1996; ISBN 0-385-26732-0pb)
This is the best starting book describing the
fundamentals of scenario planning. Peter Schwartz is a futurist and a founder of
GBN, but have also worked at SRI and Shell with scenario planning. Read
the
GBN Book Club text on the book.
Click to
buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
Scenarios - The Art of Strategic Conversation
(Kees van der Heijden; Wiley, 1996; 305 pages;
ISBN 0-471-96639-8)
In my opinion, the best book about scenario planning in a
business context because it connects to strategy and it's practice in a
strategic context. The author Kees van der Heijden is one of the
founders of GBN and have also a history as head of the Scenario
Planning group at Shell. Read the GBN Book Club text on the book.
Click to
buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
Scenario
Planning - Managing for the Future
(Gill Ringland; Wiley 1998; 401 pages; ISBN 0-471-97790-X)
A book mainly focused at providing experiences from a
number of scenario planning projects in different companies.Gill
Ringland work for ICL and the book take base in the scenario projects
within ICL, but are also providing texts from a number of other
projects in other contexts. Read the GBN
Book Club text on the book
Click to
buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
Learning
from the Future
(Liam Fahey, Robert M. Randall; Wiley 1998; 446 pages; ISBN 0-471-30352-6)
A volume containing a number of articles focusing on
different application areas or aspects of scenario planning. Some
overlapping info, but also a lot of ideas on how to use scenarios. Read
the GBN
Book Club text on the book.
Click to
buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
The Age of Heretics
(Art Kleiner; Doubleday, 1996; 414 pages; ISBN 0-385-41576-1)
This book is telling the stories about the heretics who
challenged the reigning views at companies like Royal Dutch/Shell. By
using scenario planning they saw possible future events which the
management groups didn't see at all. Art Kleiner is among other things
teach a scenario class focusing on the future for telecommunication
infrastructure at New York University. Read the GBN Book Club text on the book.
Click to buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
The Sixth Sense
Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios
(Kees van der Heijden et al, 2002; 320 pages; ISBN 0-470-84491-4)
This book focus on the problem for individuals and organizations to embrace
the future. How can scenario planning help organizations to survive; to
overcome the difficulties with group think and cognitive
barriers?
Click to buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
Scenario planning - The Link Between Future and Strategy
(Mats Lindgren & Hans Bandhold, 2002; 192 pages; ISBN 0-333-99317-9)
Lindgren and Bandhold are taking scenario planning
one step further into a more strategy integrated process. By being more
pragmatic and less philosophic this is definitely a valuable
contribution to the business community when it comes to spreading
scenario planning as a practical tool in everyday strategic planning.
Click
to buy from Amazon.co.uk
Click to
buy from Amazon.com
Other links (top)
There are a lot of links on the web that are dealing with futurist
issues. Here are some that could be of interest.
Futurizing
your organization
This refers to a subsection on the Horizon site and contains articles
on how to approach the future. Most of the articles concerns scenario
planning.
The
Plausible Future - Scenario planning resources
Another excellent page with a lot of information on scenario planning, references and organizations.
University
of Arizona reference site - Scenarios, Foresight and Change
A reference list used in a course on methods and approaches for studying the future.
Scenariothinking.org wiki
This is (to my knowledge) the first wiki focusing on scenario thinking. A wiki is a page which everyone can update and add knowledge to. Daniel Erasmus and DTN is behind it which also means that Daniels students are working on it and publish scenarios and valuable thoughts related to their projects.
