Wednesday, March 16, 2005

More arguments towards oil peak scenario

The analysts who pointed out strange things at Enron before it chrashed is now commenting the coming oil peak.

Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 months or so.

This is another argument in the scenario describing $200/barrel scenario. An oil peak before year 2010 seems more likely for every day.

Read the article: Salon.com News | Running on empty

Saturday, March 12, 2005

Even the US government knows about the coming oil peak

Many bloggers including WorldChanging and Bruce Sterling is together with me convinced that the oil is bound to peak in the near future. Al Jazeera recently wrote an article pointing out a US government report which clearly explain the unevitability of the coming oil peak. The question is not if, but when.

From the report summary:

In summary, the problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. The challenges and uncertainties need to be much better understood. Technologies exist to mitigate the problem. Timely, aggressive risk management will be essential.

In the report there are three scenarios analyzing the effects if
  1. the actions to meet the oil peak is immediate
  2. the actions to meet the oil peak happens 10 years from now
  3. the actions to meet the oil peak happens 20 years from now

The question is what US government will do about it. How do we prepare here in Europe?

WorldChanging: Another World Is Here: "Oil Peaking is Going to Happen"
Al Jazeera article about the report
Download the report here